Hold on to your seats! We interrupt our trolling deep dive with a breaking case study: trolling, now available in press release format! Forget 280 characters; this time, they’ve gone for the gold. Grab your popcorn, this one’s a doozy.
The latest press release about prison statistics from Speak Up for (Some) Women (SUFW) reads like a masterclass in statistical gymnastics and transphobia. Right out of the gate, they hit us with the term "trans-identifying males" or, more bluntly, “men who identify as women.” This language isn’t just clumsy; it’s a deliberate attempt to undermine the legitimacy of trans women’s identities. It’s dehumanizing, delegitimizing, and downright disrespectful. Let’s be clear: trans women are women.
And that’s just the start of the show. SUFW goes on to deliver an Olympic-level performance in the “Misrepresenting Data to Stoke Unfounded Fears” category. Let’s break down their routine and see just how many points they score for creative manipulation! Then you too can learn to obfuscate like a Pro.
The Overlap Illusion: Or, How to Create a Phantom Threat
First up, SUFW presents the old "two-for-one special." They note that "14% of trans-identifying males" (slur alert!) are in prison for sexual offences, while another "14% of them are housed in women's prisons." The trick here is to present these two statistics side by side as if they overlap. Voilà! A phantom threat is born, conjuring the image of women prisoners menaced by a horde of dangerous trans women sex offenders.
But hold on a second. There’s zero evidence that these two groups are the same. In fact, they could be entirely different, and likely are. Why place these side-by-side? Simple: because it looks scarier.
The Apples and Oranges Twister
Next, we witness SUFW’s daring leap into the realm of demographic deception. They claim trans women are “overrepresented” in prisons by comparing the incarceration rate of trans women against that of the general population. But here’s where things get tricky: Their Stats NZ census totals for cis men and cis women cover the entire population, from toddlers to centenarians, whereas their totals for trans women use a figure that only includes adults 18 and over.
To make matters worse, they cherry-pick a figure that drastically underestimates the number of trans women in Aotearoa by excluding non-binary people. The actual gender identity survey from Stats NZ estimates there are 19,400 trans people, and, shocker, about half of them are likely AMAB (Assigned Male at Birth). Instead, SUFW opts for a much lower figure to make it seem like trans women are disproportionately represented among offenders.
This is like comparing apples to oranges. And guess what? This skewed comparison makes it appear as though trans women are running a criminal enterprise worthy of a crime drama, when in reality, most are just trying to survive in a world that’s set on misunderstanding them. Lies, damn lies, and sadistic statistics indeed!
The Inconvenient Truth: Context Matters
Next, SUFW conveniently ignores some crucial context which was pointed out the last time gender critical folk platformed this: most offences by trans women happen pre-transition. Yes, that's before they’ve had access to the gender-affirming care and support they need, often while facing severe mental stress from untreated dysphoria, joblessness, homelessness, and social stigma. It's no surprise that some may end up committing crimes out of sheer desperation.
And here’s the kicker: post-transition, when trans women receive the support and care they need, they commit crimes at rates comparable to cis women. It turns out that less stigma, more support, and access to healthcare lead to better outcomes — who knew? Oh, right, anyone with a modicum of empathy and a basic understanding of human behaviour.
If They Really Cared…
Now, if SUFW were truly concerned about these stats, they’d be the loudest voices calling for increased access to gender-affirming care and reduced discrimination against trans women in employment and housing. After all, these are proven ways to reduce the very issues they claim to care about. But strangely, they oppose both. I wonder why? Could it be that the statistics are just a convenient tool for another agenda? Just asking questions…
Nailing The Dismount: Scapegoating Trans Women
Finally, let’s call out the grand finale: the blatant prejudice underpinning this entire press release. SUFW is determined to paint trans women as inherently dangerous to cis women, just by virtue of their identity. Criminal behaviour exists in every group, but that doesn’t mean criminals are representative of the entire group.
We don’t consider Lisa Biron, a cisgender woman who committed horrific crimes involving sex trafficking, to be a stand-in for all cis women. That would be ludicrous — and deeply unfair. But somehow, SUFW expects us to buy into the idea that every trans woman is a threat based on the actions of a few. This is the same faulty logic used to stereotype racial and ethnic minorities who are also overrepresented in prison populations. And we know how harmful and inaccurate those stereotypes are, right? After all, pointing at prison stats for “Fun and Prejudice” is a common tactic amongst racists.
Scorecard: A Perfect 10 for Fear-Mongering
So, how many misrepresentations can a single press release contain? Quite a few, if you’re determined to win gold in “Prejudice Gymnastics.” But the facts don’t lie: when you strip away the distortions, trans women aren’t the threat they’re made out to be. The real threat here? Misinformation, prejudice, and fear-mongering narratives that do more harm than good.
Next time you read a press release like this, keep your eye out for the tricks and turns. And maybe grab a scorecard — because some folks are clearly punching above their weight in this sport.
A succinct, thought provoking and well written article as always Paul. Thank you. Anne